The Part-Time Investor
Finance | Economics | Trading | Investing
The Traders' Blog
Here's a forecast: economists will continue to be useless
ECONOMICS is a science that employs some of the world's most intelligent people and most powerful computers to prove the bleeding obvious. An excited academic once told me to look into behavioural economics, which he described as the most ''exciting and radical'' of all the fields of economic research. Its most edgy, controversial finding? That people occasionally behave irrationally, driven by emotion rather than reason. Well, duh. (Source)
I like this comment of Conway:
"The ratings agencies, which ought to have had the hardest fall from grace after famously deeming worthless ''toxic'' assets to be among the highest-grade investments, are still able to provoke panic by merely hinting that they are planning to downgrade a country's debt. We continue to hang on the words of Nobel laureates and professors who entirely failed to see the crisis coming."
I find this amusing but I think it is a little unfair to pick on economists though. When crisis like this happens, you can almost pick on any industry, institution or endeavour as being useless. What about the regulators and the politicians and all who purport to know anything about the financial industry really. In factthe socialist just prefer to blame the whole thing on capitalism.
However, I think the problem is not knowledge or expertise. There were people who saw a disaster was looming. The question is why did they not speak up louder, if at all? Was it going to be detrimental for them to do so politically, legally, financially or otherwise? Or was it because people did not listen and dismissed contrarian voices. ? It is all of these.
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